As another Halloween rolls around, you may notice the price of candy, specifically chocolate, has risen yet again. Some of it is due to tariffs and inflation, sure, however another factor at play is the climate patterns cacao trees are grown in. Recently, cocoa production has fallen 40%, with prices shooting up to levels not seen in half a century. Trees are grown in the tropics, where periods of heavy rainfall followed by extended drought have shaken up the delicate ecosystems living there. Cacao, in particular, is heavily affected by extremes, liable to develop disease under humid conditions and yield poor quality under dry ones. In 2023, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, two countries that make up over 60% of the global chocolate market, were hit with abnormally serious rainfall from the months of April to June, and later a prolonged drought from November to February. That year, yields were at a record low and there was a shortage in global supply. Although that period may have been a historical outlier, changing climate is increasing the frequency and duration of these extremes. Warmer, moister climates intensify rainfall. Intense rainfall leads to erosion and the augmentation of fungal diseases. Cherish the treats you have today, because they might not be so abundant much longer.¹

1. https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/chocolates-climate-crisis/ ↩︎